THE next General Election result is impossible to predict. One reason is obvious. If a party is to win a majority it has to own a sizeable share of the national vote. This used to come naturally to the major parties.
In the 1951 election no less than 98 per cent of voters pledged their allegiance to either the Conservatives or Labour. The polls today suggest this has tumbled to 60 per cent.
The rest has fragmented. Insurgent 'none of the above' Kippers, rapidly resurgent Greens, the remnants of the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the SNP, Irish Unionists and Nats, English Democrats, Monster Raving Loonies, the Bus Pass Elvis Party carve up the rest.
These parties vary in support – Ukip on 15 per cent, the Greens and Libs at eight and six per cent.
Under our electoral system converting these numbers into seats is tough.
The reality is that unless you can achieve a concentration of votes in particular seats you are not going to gain much of a parliamentary presence – for this reason I predict that Ukip will win fewer than six seats next year and the Lib Dems will perform much better than many predict.
For Conservatives there are the challenges of the parliamentary boundaries that were due to be more fairly redrawn but for our Lib Dem chums.
We have much ground to make up in the North and Scotland.
Labour have the problems of leadership and strategy.
Ed Miliband just hasn't cut it, with even a high proportion of his own supporters unable to see him as Prime Minister (a third of Labour voters actually think that Cameron would be a better PM).
The leadership problem has destroyed the strategy which has been one of old style Labour talking to its traditional core vote while absorbing austerity weary Lib Dems – to deliver victory on just 35 per cent.
But traditional Labour voters are peeling off to the Greens, to Ukip and the ranks of the undecided. Post referendum Scotland too looms with the SNP threatening many Labour seats.
The issues battleground is, as ever, fragmented too.
Labour want the focus on health, the Greens on… well, green matters, Ukip on the EU.
What Conservatives must continue to remind people of is that the biggest issue of all is the one that supports all the rest – the economy.
Our record is strong – we have cut the deficit by a third, we have the fastest growing economy in the industrialised world, unemployment has fallen off a cliff, inflation is low and real wages are starting to rise.
But there is much more to do and a Conservative government is needed to finish the job. Without it – with our economy sliding backwards we will all quickly discover that the other things that politicians promise are all for the birds – because they will be unaffordable.
We may be in new territory in this fragmented multi-party world – but the lessons of our profligate past still hold true – this must be the message that prevails next May.
Busy
Recently I dropped in on Guy Sheppard, who owns the Exe Valley micro-brewery near Silverton. I have developed a growing interest in micro-breweries and enjoyed helping Guy fill some of the early barrels with his award winning 'Winter Glow' – early morning is not usually the time I start drinking but it was good to have some of this marvellous ale.
I'm also a great fan of local ciders and my next stop was Barny Butterfield in Crediton who produces some of the greatest cider on the planet. Many of his apples are from his orchards in Sandford.
In Crediton I also caught up with local farmers to discuss Bovine TB. I held surgeries in North Tawton and Crediton. At Okehampton Medical Centre I met with the head of the local Patient Participation Group and others to discuss the CCG's new health plans for the area.
Also in Okehampton I was delighted to spend time with some of the children at Okehampton Primary School. Hazel Fox is an outstanding and positive headteacher and she and her team continue to do an outstanding job. The children I met had taken part in the Green Schools Awards and were the regional winners.
I was in Bovey Tracey for a speaking engagement and also dropped in to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Lustleigh Home Guard Rifles. Outside Bovey I met with members of the New Park Residents Association – an impressive organisation that has established a very positive working relationship with their park home site owner.
Afterwards I visited another site. Buckingham Orchard has had many difficult years with a number of site management issues. I was grateful to Sandra Statt who showed me around. There are a number of issues that I will be taking up with the local authority.
