THE UKIP fox is in the Westminster henhouse was how Nigel Farage described the recent electoral fallouts... not quite yet, but there are a lot of headless chickens running around Europe as a result. A new wave of popular anger at the EU and the established political class was exhibited, most notably in France where Marine Le Pen's National Front topped the poll, but austerity hit voters in Greece, Austria, Germany, Denmark and elsewhere also punished incumbent pro-Brussels parties.
Even our most popular pro-EU party here, the Lib Dems, only managed to secure one seat. Official estimates showed anti-EU parties winning 131 out of 751 seats. This is all positive for David Cameron's efforts to bring about renegotiations ahead of a referendum.
Thankfully, it is now clear he is not the only leader humbled by the rise of the populist right, and Francois Hollande's widely-reported comments that the European Union has become "remote and inaccessible" are a sign than even the old defenders of arch-federalism are beginning to come around to the Prime Minister's arguments. What is absolutely clear is that across Europe people have voted at these Euro elections as a way to send a variety of messages.
Here, people think that the EU is not working for Britain. We need to fix that relationship, deliver real change and make it work for Britain, and then give people a say on the result through an in/out referendum. And only the Conservatives have a clear plan to do that. Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not and UKIP can't.
UKIP itself told voters that the European elections gave people a 'free hit' and that they should use it. So voters have used this recent election too to send the Government a demand to deliver on the economy, immigration and welfare, in particular. But, and this is a big but, UKIP is the symptom, it is not the cure, there can be no free hit at a General Election when people have to decide the leadership and government of the country. The electorate will have to choose a party with a clear long-term economic plan to turn this country around, deal with immigration, fix the welfare system and pass the laws needed to enable an in/out referendum in Europe. I would say the Conservatives are best placed to do this. But it isn't going to be easy. The next election will be fought on the economy, because it encompasses everything. Yes, things are improving but austerity will continue until public borrowing is under control. A long-term economic plan is essential. Without a plan, the angry fringe that is mobilising all over Europe, will continue to march; which will make the business of politics much more unpredictable and ultimately more dangerous.
Yes, as Conservatives, we will have to win back voters who have defected to UKIP; we will have to win back their trust. Many had felt taken for granted, their concerns ignored. There is no doubt we lost a section of the Conservative tribe in a rush to oust Gordon Brown but also because of the compromises necessary to form a coalition Government which was formed in the best interests of the country.
Commentators are right when they say the UKIP genie is mostly a right wing phenomenon but results from America's Tea Party movement and from these recent European elections do make clear that this is a mood that has erupted across many advanced economies.
It is to do with the absence of strong economic growth in places where many people are struggling to make ends meet. It makes people less generous to immigrants in particular, less generous to overseas aid and to welfare. From the left of politics it produces greater calls to tax the rich. And it creates cultural tensions as well in the form of religious values and integration into different societies.
The next election will be fought on the economy because it encompasses everything. Yes, things are improving but austerity will continue until public borrowing is under control. A long term economic plan is essential.
Without a plan, the angry fringe that is mobilising all over Europe, will continue to march; which will make the business of politics much more unpredictable and ultimately more dangerous.
